We can Think Big to navigate tricky times
| Reproduced with permission from Kate Burke, Think Agri.
What’s your favourite business power tool in times of uncertainty? I’ve also been thinking about tools to help us through the current ultra uncertain world we are facing for the coming farming season. We want the right answer, not a list of three possible answers. And we dont want to think about the worst case scenario. So fear stops us from using really useful tools. As Mum used to say though, you cant always get want you want and you have to make do with what you’ve got. She also said, it’s not want you want to do, it’s what you’ve got to do. I think for the sake of our business and our families, what we have to do right now is some serious scenario analysis. Unlike other creatures, humans have the ability to think through issues, to use what we know to plan for what we don’t know. This ability to Think Big, is called metacognition. It’s a very powerful tool in high stakes situation. (My definition of high stakes is when either the investment or the impact of that investment is high). The template below, is a guide to working through various scenarios. You can use spreadsheets, aps or just the back of an envelope. The main thing is to get the thoughts about the issue out of your head and make them visible to you and others you work with. Seeing the options, improves clarity even if certainty is impossible. I learnt this approach from my former boss John Stuchbery and have used it for over 25 years. It works and it’s worth the effort. It gives you back the power of focussing on what’s within your control and managing the risk of what isn’t. The Think Big Decision Guide Instructions · Name the specific issue causing uncertainty and worry · What’s the degree of impact and investment. If one of these is high, keep going! · Define the scenarios: Bad, Ok, Good for your circumstance. · What do we know about the odds of it being Bad, Ok or Good? · What outcomes could arise from those situations? · What do we need to plan for if it’s Bad, OK, Good? · At regular intervals, repeat the process. This is the most critical part of the process. Key Prompts Date of Assessment:
What might happen? Worst Case What are the odds of each case occurring? What are the implications of each scenario? How do we feel about each scenario? What decisions do we need to make by when? What support do we need to get a better handle on the situation? When should we reassess? I cant emphasise enough that this exercise works best when repeated each time new information emerges. For example, if you are using it for estimating yield potential and nitrogen needs, the moment it rains, a new analysis is required.
What next? |
Kate has written a couple of books that you might be interested in:
One on Succession: Future-Proofing Your Family Farm
