Friday Climate Forum #2: Don’t hang your hat on one forecast

The recording from our second Friday Climate Forum is now available to watch.

This session featured Dale Grey, Seasonal Risk Agronomist with Agriculture Victoria, who joined us to discuss how to interpret climate forecasts and better understand what they can — and can’t — tell us.

Dale explained that seasonal climate forecasts are useful tools for understanding the direction of seasonal risk, but they should not be treated as exact predictions for individual farms, paddocks or towns. Climate models work across broad grid areas, and forecast maps can sometimes look more precise than the underlying data really is.

A key message from the session was that forecasts are about probability, not certainty. A drier outlook does not mean “no rain”; it means the odds have shifted towards drier conditions. Similarly, a wetter signal means the chance of wetter conditions has increased, but it is not guaranteed.

Dale also highlighted that autumn forecasts often have limited skill, particularly for sowing decisions. At that time of year, known factors such as soil moisture, paddock condition, weed pressure, financial position and commodity prices should remain central to decision-making. Forecast skill generally improves in winter and spring, when climate drivers are more likely to influence rainfall patterns.

Participants were encouraged to look across several climate models, rather than relying on one forecast alone. Confidence increases when multiple models are pointing in the same direction and when the forecast is being made during a time of year when models are known to have better skill.

The practical takeaway was to use climate forecasts as one part of farm decision-making, alongside local knowledge and current paddock conditions.

Watch the webinar recording here:  recording link

The Sustainable Agriculture EP project is supported by the Australian Government through funding from the Natural Heritage Trust under the Climate-Smart Agriculture Program and delivered for the Eyre Peninsula Landscape Board, a member of the Commonwealth Regional Delivery Partners panel by AIR EP, EPAG Research, PIRSA and Ag VIC.