Friday Climate Forum #1: seasonal outlook for the Eyre Peninsula

The first Friday Climate Forum was held on 1 May, focusing on the seasonal outlook for the Eyre Peninsula. Guest presenter Dale Grey, Seasonal Risk Agronomist with Agriculture Victoria, shared insights on the timing of the break, recent rainfall and soil moisture, key climate indicators, and what seasonal models are currently suggesting.

A key message from the session was to remain cautious, but not overly pessimistic. While many climate models are currently leaning towards a drier and warmer outlook, including the possible development of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, Dale highlighted that neither of these climate drivers has clearly formed yet. Autumn forecasts also have lower reliability, so current outlooks should be treated as probabilities rather than certainties.

Dale also noted that many parts of the Eyre Peninsula are starting the season with useful stored soil moisture following strong summer and early autumn rainfall. This may provide an important buffer for crop establishment, even if rainfall is below average in the early part of the season.

The session also covered why “Super El Niño” headlines should be treated with care. Dale explained that the strength of warming in the Pacific does not directly determine the severity of drying for the Eyre Peninsula. Instead, growers should keep watching actual climate indicators, including trade winds, pressure patterns, Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling, and Indian Ocean conditions.

The recording is now available here: AIR EP Youtube Channel

The next Friday Climate Forum will be held on 22 May, with Dale returning to focus on interpreting climate forecasts — what they can and can’t tell you. Register here – https://tr.ee/s5vkk3

The Friday Climate Forum series will continue over the coming months as part of the Eyre Peninsula Sustainable Ag Program.