What are predicted yields on EP for 2022? July update

Across the Eyre Peninsula good opening rains have been received resulting in high yield potential. There is an array of predicted yield gaps (nitrogen limited) from none to several tonnes. Upper EP has some high yield potential paddocks with a relatively low yield gap. Lower EP for the most part has a relatively large yield gap as would be expected. This is relative to crop rotation, soil type and yield potential. Knowledge of stored soil moisture, soil type and starting N all contribute to the knowledge of the yield gap and therefore what is required on an agronomic basis to aim for the most beneficial yield potential on farm. Elements such as heat and frost must also be considered when making such decisions.

The Resilient Eyre Peninsula project is one aimed at bringing together on-farm technology to enhance decision making, profitability and reduce risk. Stored moisture, yield potential and risk are 3 main focal points of the project. Within this Yield Prophet(R) is used to understand and demonstrate the factors that drive yield potential, the yield gap and risk at 8 locations across the Eyre Peninsula. The project is funded by the National Landcare Program.

The reports generated on 7 July 2022 are available here for download. Please note:

• Yeelanna: Emu canola was the actual variety sown, but had to use ‘Early canola’ to match the phenology (quick variety), but will not have the same yield potential as Emu.
• Minnipa: sowed Ballista but we used Mace for the report (Ballista not an option in Yield Prophet)
• Cockaleechie: sowed Vixen but we used Sunco for the report
• We made the assumption that stubble load was 50% of harvest dry matter.

On the attached reports in the first graph, the blue line is the water limited yield potential, that is the maximum possible yield with the given water. The probability (Y axis), indicates the probability that you will achieve that yield. The green line indicates the yield potential given current nutrition (nitrogen). The gap between the green and blue line is the ‘yield gap’ or further required nitrogen to reach water limited yield potential. When talking of yield potential we are looking at water limited yield at the 50% probability.