RiskWi$e: Grower Insights and Yield Prophet Predictions in a Changing Season
Season Overview
Andrew Ware, EPAG Research
The 2025 cropping season on the Eyre Peninsula has been a story of two halves. A tough, dry start tested grower resilience, but significant July rainfall has shifted the outlook—lifting yield potential across much of the region. This turnaround has prompted a wave of reassessment, as farmers weigh how much to capitalise on the improved conditions while managing the risks that remain, including the impact of recent warm, dry weather.
To capture these shifts in thinking, EPAG Research’s Jake Giles sat down with five local growers for the RiskWi$e “Chasing the Upside” podcast series. In these short conversations, growers share the decisions they’ve made so far, what’s worked in their systems, and how they’re adapting nitrogen strategies, workloads, and priorities as the season evolves.
Their stories are backed by Yield Prophet modelling from eight monitoring sites—Edillilie, Cockaleechie, Cleve, Lock, Cootra, Minnipa, Port Kenny, and Wirrulla—which tracks how yield potential has changed over the past month under dry, average, and wet seasonal finish scenarios. Together, the grower perspectives and modelled data provide a clear, on-the-ground and in-the-data snapshot of how 2025’s rapidly changing season is shaping decisions across the Eyre Peninsula.
Grower Perspectives from the RiskWi$e Podcast Series
Across five episodes, growers from Coorabie to Cootra shared how they are adapting to the season’s sharp pivot:
Common themes across all conversations included:
- Using in-season rainfall and updated forecasts to guide nitrogen top-ups.
- Managing workload peaks through August and September while staying alert to frost and heat risk later in the year.
- The value of peer networks and advisory support in decision-making.
- Balancing optimism with caution—avoiding over-commitment while chasing the upside.
These on-the-ground experiences mirror what Yield Prophet modelling is showing—an initial surge in potential following July rain, followed by site-specific adjustments as the seasonal outlook refines.
Yield Prophet – How the Outlook Has Changed
Yield Prophet simulations at Edillilie, Cockaleechie, Cleve, Lock, Cootra, Minnipa, Port Kenny, and Wirrulla show how yield potential evolved between 11 July and 15 August, modelled for three seasonal finishes:
- 75% probability (dry finish) – Green
- 50% probability (average finish) – Purple
- 25% probability (wet finish) – Blue
Key trends:
- July rain delivered an immediate lift in yield predictions at most sites, especially between 11 July and 28 July, with gains most pronounced under the 50% and 25% probability scenarios.
- Higher PAWC sites showed the strongest sustained increases, while shallower soils saw smaller gains—highlighting the importance of soil type in capturing and holding water.
- By 15 August, some sites (e.g. Cleve, Port Kenny) showed slight dips from late-July peaks under wet scenarios— reflecting a relatively dry to August so far.
Turning Data into Decisions
When we put the podcast insights alongside the Yield Prophet trends, several decision points emerge for EP growers:
- Use peer networks to sense-check plans – As several podcast guests noted, discussions with neighbours, local advisors, and grower groups remain a vital cross-check against over- or under-reacting to seasonal changes.
- Match nitrogen to probability, not just potential – Consider not only the yield you could achieve, but how likely it is under the current forecast.
- Balance the upside with the risk tail – While a wet finish offers attractive yields, frost, heat shock, and disease risk all remain live concerns in late-finishing seasons.
Listen to the Podcast
The full conversations are now available as a short podcast series. Tune in to hear how other growers are responding to the 2025 season.
Here are the links for Spotify. They can also be found on Apple Podcasts, or check out our EP Ag Chats catalogue of podcasts via our website.
