RiskWi$e: updated yield predictions for 2024

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Check out the latest Yield Prophet reports generated last week for updated yield predictions for 6 focus paddocks on EP.

Go to the project webpage and scroll right down to the bottom in the downloads section for the latest Yield Prophet reports.

Commentary from Jake Giles, EPAG Research:

After a late start followed by a very wet month I thought it might be of interest to have a quick look at where we are sitting.

What I found most interesting yet obvious is the fact that the wet month we just had hasn’t really shifted yield potential by much. Yes it has improved yield potential but marginally. Two main reasons for this. Firstly that June is one of the wettest months of the year so you would expect it to be wet. And secondly that the fact still remains that crops were up late and therefore accumulation of biomass and flowering time will not be as timely as what we have seen for the three seasons prior.

Also it has been a wet month yes, but we are still hovering around a decile 1-2 for the season to date. The good news is that a above average June means that a lot of soil profiles are full or near full, especially seeing as plant uptake has been minimal. Looking at soil moisture probe output displays this. This gives us a buffer and a degree of confidence going forward.

Another point of note is the potential that still remains. The last month of rain has meant that the lower probability of high yields has increased and there is definitely some opportunity for upper end potential.

What does this mean? Essentially the outcome of the season is now much more heavily weighted on what happens in spring.

Nothing too revelational but rather a summary of what has happened with yield predictions this year.

Please note that there is a glitch in the long term forecasts on the last page – they are from 2023 not 2024 – they haven’t updated for some reason.

From Peter Hayman, SARDI:

Below are the forecast maps from the Bureau of Meteorology.  There is not a lot to see from these forecasts as the map is white (even chance of above or below median).

This time last year, EP had a good start but the outlook was for increased chance of dry.  This year, the dry start was consistent with the forecast for increased odds of dry. The forecasts have shifted to more or less even odds of wetter or drier.   Most international models seem to have the odds improving through the season, the exception is the coast south of Adelaide into southern Victoria.

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