RiskWi$e: National Risk Management Initiative – Action Research Groups Eyre Peninsula

AIR EP will lead the project and convene an EP Action Research Group (Steering Committee) to provide oversight of the project and provide a conduit to link to the NMRI Lead Project Team.

Steering Committee:

• Bill Long (Chair), AIR EP
• Andrew Ware, EPAG Research
• Mark Stanley, AIR EP
• Rachel May, SA Drought Hub
• Naomi Scholz, AIR EP
• Amanda Cook, SARDI
• Symon Allen, BFIG

EPAG Research will coordinate the delivery of all project activities ensuring partners are well connected and are adding value to the project; and will convene 6 farmer led action research discussion groups across EP. These groups will meet 3 times each year to better understand the probability of outcomes and the risk-reward of implementing management options as identified in the themes.

A theme working group (TWG) will build their capacity in using a range of risk management tools and processes, and in turn provide ongoing support to the discussion groups. Working group members will work closely with a range of experts who will support the project delivery, building the capacity of the TWG to work with the discussion groups. The themes will have members of the working groups interacting with experts in the field to ensure objectives of the theme are being met in a local context. Experts to be engaged include:

• Dr Peter Hayman, Principal Scientist in Climate Applications, SARDI
• Barry Mudge, Mudge Consultancy Services - risk & farm business management
• Ed Hunt, Ed Hunt Agricultural Consultancy Pty Ltd
• Josh Hollitt, Hollitt Consulting Pty Ltd
• Andrew Ware, EPAG Research
• Jake Giles, EPAG Research
• Andy Bates, Bates Ag Consulting
• George Pedler, George Pedler Ag
• Murray Unkovich, University of Adelaide
• Therese McBeath, CSIRO
• James Cant, BFIG

Theme 1: Nitrogen management

Theme 2: Enterprise mix

This project will link with the CSIRO NRMI Project Lead proposal led by Rick Llewellyn, accessing CSIRO modelling capability, systems modelling and climate change analysis. It will link with other GRDC investments occurring on EP (namely SA node of national Nitrogen cycling project, the Soil CRC/GRDC Calcareous Soils project, the Southern Region Farming Systems project) and Future Drought Fund and SA Drought Hub projects. The SA Drought Hub will support an additional component of this risk proposal, providing funds to further examine the risk-rewards associated with implementing disc seeder/stripper front systems.

Coutts JR will develop a project monitoring and evaluation plan that will ensure continuous feedback loops occur at all levels allowing the project to adapt and maximise impact.

RiskWi$e focus sites in 2024:

• Cootra
• Minnipa
• Port Kenny
• Lock
• Cockaleechie
• Cleve

How is the 2024 season shaping up and how can nitrogen strategy be approached?

With seeding just around the corner (or already started for some), many growers are considering questions like: how will the season turn out? How much of the rain we had last December is still available for this year’s crop? Should I be targeting above average yields? How much money should I spend on this year’s crop?

Crop yields hinge on numerous factors, but if you were to ask most people, they'd likely agree on one primary factor: rainfall. Rain drives good yields, while its absence leads to the opposite outcome. Predicting when to make the best of a good year or cut costs on a poor year can make farming a bit of a 'dark art' as growers navigate a range of decisions. Often, these decisions are based on years of experience, where growers rely on intuition or gut feeling. This intuitive approach often provides a solid base for decision-making and outcomes, but can see some opportunities lost or overspending on poor years.

An alternative approach involves 'calculated' decision-making. It typically involves sitting down, perhaps with a calculator, scribbling numbers on the back of an envelope, or better yet, using a computer and spreadsheet. While this method still incorporates intuition, it presents information in a way that allows growers and/or consultants to clearly weigh the benefits against the risks.

The framework, developed by Barry Mudge and Peter Hayman, where a range of outcomes to decisions are considered, provides a means of examining all outcomes simultaneously to make well-informed decisions and forms part of GRDC’s RiskWi$e initiative. It's about calculating and potentially minimising risk and maximising rewards within a farming operation.

As part of the RiskWi$e project, six paddocks were chosen to run Yield Prophet® on, serving as examples to discuss with growers. This approach benefits from using real numbers from the local area, making them more relatable. The following provides an example of how nitrogen decisions and their long-term outcomes could be worked through to consider a range of outcomes.

Overall, the aim of the RiskWi$e project is to assist growers in managing risk. It's not to suggest that growers aren't already adept at doing so, but rather to work through a range of tools where the spectrum of possible outcomes are considered.

We aim to regularly update the information provided for the focus paddocks, to help track how nitrogen applications respond to seasonal conditions and yield forecasts.

If you require any further information or would like to discuss the way you are approaching nitrogen decisions for the upcoming season, please contact Jacob Giles, EPAG Research, Port Lincoln, 0431 110 018 or jacob@epagresearch.com.au.

All the best for a fantastic opening to the season and a smooth seeding.

Cleve focus site 15 April 2024

Cockaleechie focus site 15 April 2024

Cootra focus site 15 April 2024

Lock focus site 15 April 2024

Minnipa focus site 15 April 2024

Port Kenny focus site 15 April 2024