Seasonal forecasts accuracy over the three years of the project (2020, 2021, 2022), and the seasonal outlook

The Resilient EP project posed the question of how can we better use seasonal forecasts in decision making? They work well in the spring and have some skill in predicting the season break. Forecasts do not predict an average season – they tell us that it will likely be either wetter or drier than average. Seasonal forecasts are too good to ignore but not good enough to be sure. Decisions must be made on the possibility of multiple seasonal futures considering soil moisture.

The SARDI Climate Applications group worked with the Regional Innovators to determine the influence of the combination of soil moisture and dynamic weather forecasting on farm decision making. In this video Peter Hayman from SARDI discusses what has occurred with seasonal forecasts over the three years of the project (2020, 2021, 2022), and then discusses the outlook for the season ahead.

The 2020 growing season: what happened, what about the forecast
and what can we learn?

Report summarising feedback from the innovators group and farmers
on seasonal climate forecasts