What are predicted yields on EP for 2022? July update #2

Across the Eyre Peninsula good opening rains were received resulting in high yield potential. There were an array of predicted yield gaps (nitrogen limited) from none to several tonnes per hectare earlier in the season. The ‘gaps’ have closed for most sites as more nitrogen has been applied and the range of potential outcomes narrows, and several sites are now tracking below decile 5 growing season rainfall. Most sites still have soil moisture at depth, but some could use a top-up. Note that the potential yields do not take into account impacts like pests, disease, frost or heat stress (although the risk of frost and heat stress is included in the reports).

The Resilient EP project aims to bring together on-farm technology to enhance decision making, profitability and reduce risk. Stored moisture, yield potential and risk are 3 main focal points of the project. Within this Yield Prophet(R) is used to understand and demonstrate the factors that drive yield potential, the yield gap and risk at 8 locations across the Eyre Peninsula. The project is funded by the National Landcare Program.

The Yield Prophet reports for the 8 locations on EP generated on 21 July 2022 are available on the AIR EP website for download.

• Yeelanna: Emu canola was the actual variety sown, but had to use ‘Early canola’ to match the phenology (quick variety), but will not have the same yield potential as Emu.
• Minnipa: sowed Ballista but we used Mace for the report (Ballista not an option in Yield Prophet)
• Cockaleechie: sowed Vixen but we used Sunco for the report
• We made the assumption that stubble load was 50% of harvest dry matter.

On the attached reports in the first graph, the blue line is the water limited yield potential, that is the maximum possible yield with the given water. The probability (Y axis), indicates the probability that you will achieve that yield. The green line indicates the yield potential given current nutrition (nitrogen). The gap between the green and blue line is the ‘yield gap’ or further required nitrogen to reach water limited yield potential. When talking of yield potential we are looking at water limited yield at the 50% probability.