Resilient EP – for a Profitable Farming Future

A Monitoring and Evaluation Log Frame was developed to capture data that assisted in effective monitoring, evaluation and learning from the project. This also informed the development of an impact pathway analysis. An on-line M&E platform was used to ensure consistency and ease of analysis and reporting. The Monitoring and Evaluation approach was based around:

• Keeping comprehensive project records in keeping with activity processes and purposes as well as details of participants at all levels.
• Drawing from peer review of trials and communication products developed from the project.
• Capturing participant feedback from activities at the time of them being run to gauge value and impact of the activities.
• Using available information and statistics to monitor communication mechanisms used in their different modes.
• Gaining regular structured feedback from the project management and team members and participating stakeholders.
• Undertaking a baseline survey.
• Undertaking a final survey of engaged producers and consultants to capture impact on capacity gains, impact – and potential impact – on decision-making, benefits arising to date and expected, and issues encountered.
• Doing case studies to better understand and demonstrate the process of change and its impact at the farm level.

Annual M&E Update report captured all Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) relevant information gained through each year of the project (2020, 2021, 2022) against the project log frame. In the final year, a full M&E report across the life of the project and including the final survey and five farmer case studies were provided. These reports provided the rich data that enabled key decisions to be made by the project steering group over the course of the project to ensure it remained on track to achieve its objectives.

M&E activities were successfully undertaken over the course of the project with the M&E team (Coutts J&R) supporting the project to capture the required data. The M&E reports were a key source of information for the six-monthly project reports submitted to DAWE. Interviewed project management felt there was an effective M&E plan and detailed evaluation throughout the project and that feedback captured at regular meetings of key players contributed to a continuous improvement loop.

Below is a summary of M&E activities undertaken over the life project:

M&E reports: Five M&E reports were produced – including three annual reports (October 2020, December 2021, and this report April 2023) and two mid-year update reports (June 2021 and August 2022).

M&E summaries: The M&E reports and activities were summarised and provided to the project manager for inclusion into the project six-monthly progress reports submitted to DAWE.

Feedback surveys: Fourteen surveys were distributed post project partner meetings for a total 43 responses (one survey had no responses); six surveys developed for RIG meetings with a total of 109 responses; and six surveys developed for project extension activities with a total of 22 responses (one survey had no responses). The table below shows all M&E surveys developed over the life the project.

RIG meetings: Attended both the March 2022 and March 2023 RIG meetings – providing input over the meetings, with Jeff Coutts running sessions at both meetings (e.g. a session on project reflection at the March 2023 meeting). An update on the 2021 M&E report findings was presented at the March 202 workshop with positive feedback received from attendees in terms of the update’s usefulness (7.3/10 avg. rating).

Case studies: Five case studies were undertaken in November 2022 to highlight how producer collaborators are viewing the project work in terms of impacting on their thinking and potential future actions – seen by project management to be highly valuable and demonstrated that farmers can apply information in their own farms.

Baseline survey: Baseline web surveys were undertaken over April-July 2020 with 54 Farmers, 7 Consultants and 22 Informed Persons in the Eyre Peninsula – aimed at understanding grower/producer awareness and use of soil moisture information and decision aids.

M&E log frame: Developed at the beginning of the project to ensure the needed data is captured to assist in effective monitoring, evaluation and learning from the project – used to guide the analysis and structure of the M&E reports.

Activity 1 Papers

Resilient and Profitable Dryland Farming on the Eyre Peninsula - Baseline Survey Report 2020. Baseline web surveys were undertaken over April-July 2020 with farmers, consultants and informed persons in the Eyre Peninsula to understand grower/producer awareness and use of soil moisture information and decision aids. As well as providing benchmarked information to revisit at the end of the project, the survey findings assisted in guiding project activities.

Final Evaluation Report 2023 Detailed M&E report for the whole project period produced by Coutts J&R. This report included feedback from extensive interviews conducted by Coutts J&R with project delivery partners, industry stakeholders, farmers directly and indirectly involved in the project.

At the beginning of the project a Regional Innovators Group (RIG) was formed, made up of trusted influencers who connected directly with farmers and created linkages with key researchers from the CSIRO, EPAG Research, SquareV and SARDI, consisting of 12 representatives of the region’s farm advisers and leading farmers.

The RIG collaborated with researchers ensuring the project tested decisions with rigour and provided real benefits to farmer decision making and farmer’s ability to embrace innovation, making significant change in land management across the region. The Regional Innovators also met at critical decision points throughout the project, to inform project decisions and supported project activities across the region.

This group meet with the researchers in six face-to-face workshops held over the course of the project to inform and direct the field validation program, interact with the CSIRO, SquareV and SARDI researchers to ensure the research was directed to provide practical outcomes and to build their skills and knowledge in using data for on farm decision making. They also participated in the final project workshop to evaluate the project outcomes.

The workshops were designed to facilitate robust discussion between the research partners and RIG members, ensuring the project was continually on track to achieve its objectives. Workshops were conducted with a mix of in-house and in the field sessions. The RIG was seen to be highly effective in supporting the project and providing input into its activities and direction, giving the project direction, and keeping it meaningful. The RIG was regarded by all stakeholders interviewed as an essential part of the project, with the success of the project largely attributed to the collaboration between the RIG and researchers.

Overall, the RIG was described as highly active, engaging, and a valuable part of the project and was seen to have provided practical input and direction, helped shape the project, and facilitated interaction between farmers and researchers.

RIG member feedback was seen as essential in ensuring research was relevant and useful to farmers in the Eyre Peninsula and allowed for interaction between farmers and researchers at a level that had never been seen before, resulting in meaningful outputs with practical applications.

RIG members being local farmers themselves was seen as particularly important, as it ensured project outputs remained focused on regionally important issues and relevant to other local farmers.

RIG meeting attendees consistently rated the RIG (and the RIG meetings) as being highly effective in supporting the project and providing input into its activities and direction.

SARDI Minnipa Agricultural Centre (MAC) and CSIRO used geostatistical techniques to review the existing soil moisture probe network and soil characterisations for coverage and effectiveness in the ability to provide real time landscape scale data on soil moisture status. Gaps in the landscape were filled and technology updated to ensure a region wide coverage that can provide quality data for on farm decision making. It was important that the new locations be optimised and positioned in ‘new’ soils not already represented the current spread of probes or where new ones will be placed.

Regional gaps in soil characterisation were filled by SARDI. Full soil characterisations were undertaken by SARDI, Minnipa Agricultural Centre, Crop Agronomy group at twenty-eight grower soil moisture probe sites. Sites were adjacent soil moisture probes, or different zones within a paddock containing a probe, or a combination of the two. The CSIRO made recommendations on the soil characterisation locations.

CSIRO researchers engaged with farmers, advisers and local researchers through the Regional Innovators Group project workshops to identify which key production problems and associated decisions that may be enhanced using emerging and available digital tools. They initiated the steps required for determining the use of sensors, both independently and as an integrated network.

CSIRO undertook analysis to determine the capacity to predict crop response to soils characterised for PAWC. The eight soils representing the validation sites were analysed in each year of the project using APSIM to test the ability of the existing characterisations to predict yield in APSIM.

Over a two year period three validation sites were studied by the CSIRO to determine what is needed to extrapolate point soil water data (from the sensor location) to predict PAW at paddock scale and farm scale.

Square V used a participatory action process with the RIG and evaluation of alternative models identified by the CSIRO, to develop a user-friendly application that provides real time information to farmers and advisers of plant available soil water.

Activity 3 Papers

2020 Soil Characterisations Full soil characterisations were undertaken between August to October 2020 at eight grower soil moisture probe sites. The soil characterisations were undertaken following the ‘Estimating plant available water capacity’, Burk and Dalgliesh protocols, 2013, and ‘Field protocols to APSoil characterisations’, CSIRO October 2016.

2021 Soil Characterisations Full soil characterisations were undertaken between August to October 2021 at thirteen grower soil moisture probe sites. The soil characterisations were undertaken following the ‘Estimating plant available water capacity’, Burk and Dalgliesh protocols, 2013, and ‘Field protocols to APSoil characterisations’, CSIRO October 2016.

Mapping soil Available Water Capacity spatially and temporally across the Adams’ farm near Ungarra, Eyre Peninsula. The purpose of the pilot study was to map at mapping a granularity (~ scale) helpful to farming decision-making the Available Water Content of soils across the whole of Adams farm using a modern soil mapping approach called digital soil mapping (DSM), and secondly, use the soil moisture signal from a single oil moisture sensor to estimate by extrapolation the volumetric water content of soils across the farm.

Optimising site location for new soil moisture probes across the agricultural areas of the Eyre Peninsula The purpose of this study was to determine and demonstrate optimised sites for new soil moisture probes for the EP.

Resilient EP Project Final Review Summary for CSIRO outcomes from research themes optimising site location for new soil moisture probes across EP agricultural areas and mapping soil water spatially and temporally across farms.

Understanding spatial and temporal variation in soil moisture – A case study from Todd Matthew’s farm at Cootra. Of interest to Todd and other farmers who have access to soil moisture sensors, is the question of how he can make use of the data provided by the sensor to understand soil water variability at the paddock scale in such a way that it can usefully inform in-paddock decisions ?

Incorporating knowledge of soil moisture into understanding of paddock variability – A case study from a paddock on Jordy Wilksch’s farm at Yeelanna A basic level of soil characterisation (i.e profile inspection and determination of PAWC) with or without some simple assessment of gravimetric water content, which could easily be done by the farmer would allow the development of rules of thumb for estimating zonal yield potential during the growing season.

Soil moisture probes. Their uses and limitations in the farming system on the Eyre Peninsula. Soil moisture probes installed across a range of Eyre Peninsula environments have demonstrated their value as tools, helping farmers to make more informed predictions of yield potential, helping them manage inputs to match.

Mapping soil Available Water Capacity spatially and temporally across Wilksch’s farm, Yeelanna, Eyre Peninsula

The purpose of this pilot study was to test mapping available water content at a granularity (~ scale) useful for in- paddock decision making within the constraints of publicly available data using a modern soil mapping approach called digital soil mapping (DSM). Secondly, test using the soil moisture signal at various times from a single probe to extrapolate to AWC soils across the farm.

The SARDI Climate Applications group worked closely with the project partners and the Regional Innovators Group (RIG) over the course of the project. They attended all six RIG workshops plus the final project workshop. They produced a range of papers that assisted in the discussions on seasonal outlook and climate projections for the region. They also initiated and were involved in workshops and small farmer discussion groups that delved into further depth on topics of climate change implications for the region and the practical use of seasonal forecasts when used in conjunction with increased understanding of soil water to make more informed on-farm decisions. The discussions between the Climate Applications group, the RIG and farmers across the region over the course were always well informed and robust, and provided a key engagement point for the project.

A set of indices of climate risk were developed for dryland farming on Eyre Peninsula including season break, spring rain, frost, heat stress and heat stress for sheep. Working with the RIG meaningful measures of weather and climate risk were developed.

Climate risks were prioritised and analysed to determine how these risks have changed over recent decades and likely to change in future projections. Appropriate climate change projections for region were reviewed.

A better understanding of seasonal climate forecasts by the EP farming community was developed with improved communication between farmers on the Eyre Peninsula and the Bureau of Meteorology. The value of information from seasonal climate forecasts and soil moisture monitoring for decision making was investigated.

Climate analysis in this early stage of the project was assisted by the project team selecting eight key validation sites, which are representative of cropping subregions of the Eyre Peninsula. This enabled a balance between depth and breadth of analysis. Most growers were aware of how their farm is cooler/warmer and wetter/drier than one of those representative sites.

Working with the CSIRO, the SARDI Climate applications team made use of a budgeting tool developed by Peter Hayman and Barry Mudge to conduct simple sensitivity analysis. Many choices involve some trade-off between the upside and downside risk- a win/loss situation. This is the “crossover” is demonstrated in the profit x decile graph. A win/win situation would see no crossover- assuming we had the numbers right, one choice would always be superior to the other. In the win/loss situation, the wedges in the graphs give us a visual picture of the decision question.

The topics that were analysed for regional impact and subsequent discussion were:

• • Examples of climate analysis that places the coming rainfall and temperature in context of long-term rainfall history and examines the risk of spring frost and heat stress for crops and summer heat stress for sheep.
  • Climate analysis for the eight validation sites across the region which providing an explanation of the analysis and a detailed of analysis for each location.

• Developed a set of indices of climate risk for dryland farming on Eyre Peninsula including season break, spring rain, frost, heat stress and heat stress for sheep. A general response from farmers and their advisers was that there was more interest in climate outlooks than monitoring the past.

• Prioritised climate risks and analysed how these risks have changed over recent decades and likely to change in future projections.

Activity 4 Papers

Climate information for eight reference sites This document contains climate information from SARDI climate applications on the eight validation sites (focus paddocks) that were a key feature of the Resilient EP project.

Making sense of climate change projections for upper Eyre Peninsula workshop: Adapting to change - climate implications EP Poll Results Results from a poll with workshop participants addressing questions on what weather/climate changes have you seen in the last 20 years; what changes in weather/climate do you anticipate in the next 10 years What have been the main changes to farming systems over the past 10 years; how do we adapt based on future projections; what changes are needed to ensure that farming on the EP is profitable over the next 20 years?

Climate indices and trends - Eyre Peninsula climate. This paper outlines feedback on indices of climate risk and shows the trends in these indices.

Climate change projections for Eyre Peninsula There are two sources of climate change projections for Eyre Peninsula. The Climate Change in Australia report from CSIRO and BoM and Climate Ready data from the Goyder Institute. This paper summarises two sources of climate change projections for Eyre Peninsula.

Discussion paper on climate data for the Resilient EP Project. This paper discusses how farmers and agronomists use resources of information such as long-term climate records, weather and seasonal climate forecasts.

The 2020 growing season: what happened, what about the forecast and what can we learn? This paper covers communicating and using forecasts early in the season and checking for regular updates based on the 2020 season experience.

Example of monthly climate values for Minnipa. This paper covers monthly rainfall in mm for the 20 years at Minnipa 2000 to 2020.

Framework for economic analysis. This paper investigates the value of information from seasonal climate forecasts and soil moisture monitoring for decision making at least three sites across EP, developing V1 of the economic analysis.

Report summarising feedback from the Regional Innovators Group and farmers on seasonal climate forecasts

Risk and reward from nitrogen in 2022. This paper analyses the benefit-cost ratio of nitrogen fertiliser on grain crops on EP.

Trends in Eyre Peninsula Climate This paper is a collation of graphs showing the trends in rainfall, temperature and extreme temperature events for the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) high quality sites on the Eyre Peninsula.

EP AG Research established a set of 24 field validation sites (eight sites annually, also referred to as Focus Paddocks) on private farm properties across the Eyre Peninsula.

The sites consisted of trails, demonstrations and monitoring sites that were used over the course of the project to validate and demonstrate practices that will take advantage of the new ability to make informed decisions on the soil /water interface across the region to determine if changing management practice can improve yields. Growing season Yield Prophet reports were produced for each validation sites.

The Resilient EP project utilized a network of 42 soil moisture probes representative of the major environments and soil types found on Eyre Peninsula. Information collated from the soil moisture probes helped provide growers and advisors real time insights to the levels of stored soil moisture, which coupled with rainfall, form the biggest limiting factor of production in the region. This helped inform more reliable production and yield targets, allowed farmers to match inputs and adjust management strategies to suit.

To build confidence in the decisions that could be improved through an increased understanding of soil water eight focus paddocks were chosen to more intensively sample, monitor and test new approaches. These paddocks were sampled both close to the soil moisture probe and across the paddock to help provide understanding of how soil moisture and crop production at the probe site related to the rest of the paddock.

The focus paddocks were also utilized to provide background information for local discussion groups held around each of the focus paddocks. The discussion groups helped increase grower awareness of a range of alternative management strategies, ground truth hypotheses and aided increasing adoption. The focus paddocks were situated at the following sites:

1. Wangary / Mount Dutton – Bruce Morgan
2. Cockaleechie – Dan Adams
3. Yeelanna – Jordan Wilksch
4. Wharminda – Ed Hunt
5. Lock – Kerran Glover
6. Cootra – Todd Matthews
7. Pinkawillinie – Paul Schaefer
8. Minnipa – Bruce Heddle; Port Kenny – Damian Little

Twenty-four field trials and demonstrations were conducted over the course of the project to test the new ability to make informed decisions on the soil /water interface across the region. The trials were driven by discussions between the Regional Innovators Group and the project research partners.

The trial program aimed to answer the questions is water the biggest limiting factor in our production system and can we collect information on water availability in soils at any time and in any place in the landscape and use that to make more profitable decisions?

The trial program focussed on several points in the calendar year where management strategies can be refined through an improved understanding of the plant available water status of the soil. The trial program included nitrogen decision making investigations, soil amelioration to increase soil bucket size, innovative genetics allowing deeper sowing of wheat, time of sowing to make greater use of soil water, and summer weed control to preserve soil water for the growing season.

Yield Prophet Reports

Yield Prophet® reports were conducted over each growing season at the eight validation sites in 2020, 2021 and 2022. These reports were loaded onto the Resilient EP project page on the AIR EP web site and communicated through the AIR EP e-news. Yield Prophet® is a software service that uses input of information from the grower/ user to predict yield. Local weather, soil characterisation, nitrogen cycling, crop and variety data all feed into Yield Prophet (which runs using the cropping systems model APSIM) to produce predicted water and nitrogen limited yields. With new and updated soil characterisations, combined with an understanding of ensuring the varieties selected match the development patterns of crops on EP, the predictions of water and nitrogen limited yield have improved across EP environments.

Activity 5 Papers

Resilient Eyre Peninsula 2020-2023, focus paddock summary Comprehensive report on the Resilient EP validation sites (focus paddocks), eight sites monitored per year 2020, 2021, 2021).

Improving our understanding of soil moisture and how to utilise it. Paper about collating and interpreting information from a range of sources including plant available water, previous grain yields and soil testing across the landscape can maximise returns and reduce risk.

Resilient EP Field Trial and Demonstration Program summary This paper summarises the 24 field trials and demonstrations that were deployed through the Resilient EP project, highlight the management strategies that were investigated and their key learnings.

A comprehensive multi channelled communications was delivered over the course of the project. This involved e-newsletters, social media, a dedicated page on the AIREP website, videos and technical papers.

An extension plan was developed and delivered. A full-time extension officer was appointed ensuring the links between farmers, their trusted network of advisers and industry representatives and project research partners were enhanced and maintained throughout the project.

Regular updates were provided in the AIR EP e-news letters that informed farmers and other stakeholders on the progress of the project. Over the course of the project short videos were produced that summarised the outcomes of the project. Detailed papers were produced that summarise key technical aspects of the project, and additional workshops were held that targeted the broader group of industry stakeholders and farmers not directly involved in the project in the region, dedicated project web pages were continually updated with project resources on the AIR EP web site, and a social media strategy using Twitter and Facebook provided continuous updates on the project progress.

The extension officer supported the implementation of local extension activities (small discussion groups, workshops, paddock walks, one on one farmer contact) to ensure there was region wide engagement in the project implementation. The officer also was a key conduit between project researchers and on ground activities in the region, especially at the eight validation sites and the soil moisture probe network.

Activity 6 Papers

Extension summary The extension officer in the Resilient EP project helped raise awareness of the project in the region, extended results, worked with growers and advisors on how they could evaluate and implement practice changes and facilitated discussion groups.